CNN: Election Coverage

[Rick Warder]

BLITZER: "This is Wolf Blitzer. You're watching CNN's election month coverage. As Republicans and Democrats kick off their effort to keep the House or seize a majority, the first television ads have begun to air nationwide. The Democrats have embraced an abstract ad attacking the Republican leadership for their failure to protect American families, for putting US troops in harm's way and for 'extinguishing the fire of patriotism'. The ad has been hailed as a work of art, and though stirring, some have questioned whether it can connect with the average voter...

"The Republicans have gone for a more solid approach. In a spot which promotes fiscal responsibility, Majority Leader Rick McLaughlin has touted the a deficit reduction of $93 billion, the first of four steps to balancing the budget by 2012. At the moment, the Republicans are a goodly way toward that target. Whereas in 2009, the federal budget deficit was at $370 billion, it hovers around $280 billion now. And if projects of rising tax receipts hold true, it may be that the Republicans can reach their target sooner than expected - and raise funding levels for certain federal programs, a boon in any presidential election year...

"But back to the current scene. The Southeast has become a bone of contention. House Minority Leader Jack Jenkins kicked off his campaign at a gathering of veterans, right outside Fort Sumter, SC. He attacked Republicans for abandoning American veterans. This line has had a particularly strong effect, as the president has begun aerial strikes against Iran to curtail that country's nuclear weapons programs. The Republicans have yet to react to these accusations, and for now, the Democrats appear to be opening a lead in the South.

"The other region of considerable activity has been the Heartland. There, Rep. Kenneth Green, the hero of the Christian Coalition, opened his campaign at Yellowstone National Park. Mr. Green was joined by Mr. McLaughlin, who kicked off his barnstorming of Texas at Waco. Mr. McLaughin touted Republican achievements such as restoring fiscal responsibility to Congress and making former President George W. Bush's tax relief permanent.

"In other regions, advertising has been running constantly, but so far, no major campaign activity has been reported. It is widely believed that the Democrats will play a lukewarm campaign due to their financial advantage - until the final days."

DAY ONE POLLING DATA

Enterprisers
Democrats:
SE: X
HL: -
NE: -
GL: -
WC: -
Comment: Democrats eat minuses all over with this traditionally Republican constituency for opposing assertive foreign policy. Only in the Southeast did the Democrats avoid a negative, as it was balanced out by Mr. Jenkins' support for military veterans.

Republicans:
SE: +
HL: ++
NE: +
GL: +
WC: +
Comment: The GOP wins big with this traditional constituency with high turnout. In the Heartland, Mr. Ken Green and Mr. McLaughlin balance each other out - Mr. Green's comments on the environment did not endear him to enterprisers, but McLaughlin's comments managed to sooth the wound. All in all worth an additional plus for the Heartland region.

Social Conservatives
Democrats:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: X
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: Democrats have focused their advertising and campaigning here on foreign policy, which does not resonate with this typology.

Republicans:
SE: +
HL: +
NE: +
GL: +
WC: +
Comment: The Republicans have attacked government waste and advocated fiscal discipline. Social Conservatives are in favor of cutting welfare spending.

Pro Gov Conservatives
Democrats:
SE: -
HL: -
NE: -
GL: -
WC: -
Comment: The Democrats eat two minuses in both these regions for attacking an assertive foreign policy, which is advocated strongly by pro government conservatives.

Republicans:
SE: -
HL: -
NE: -
GL: -
WC: -
Comment: Republicans alienate pro government conservatives as well this week, by attacking welfare, government spending in general and touting deficit reductions. Pro government conservatives believe the government should help the poor - even if it means more debt, pollsters report.

Upbeats
Democrats:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: X
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: No change. Upbeats have not reacted to the Democrat message so far.

Republicans:
SE: -
HL: -
NE: -
GL: -
WC: -
Comment: Republicans eat two minuses with Upbeats, who do not think government is wasteful and are not necessarily in favor of slashing deficit spending.

Disaffecteds
Democrats:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: X
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: Democrats failed to bring in Disaffecteds this week.

Republicans:
SE: +
HL: +
NE: +
GL: +
WC: +
Comment: This enigmatic voting group was swayed by the GOP message to cut back government waste. The question is whether the Disaffecteds will bother turning out to go vote or whether they will simply stay at home.

Liberals
Democrats:
SE: +
HL: ++
NE: ++
GL: ++
WC: ++
Comment: The Democrats have cornered the liberal market with their aggressive attacks on US foreign policy and military interventionism. It seems doubtful that the Republicans will bother addressing liberals - and attempting to bring in their vote. In the Southeast, Mr. Jenkins' support for war veterans has alienated some traditional liberals.

Republicans:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: X
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: The Republicans, focusing on fiscal policy, did not particularly enrage or please the liberals.

Conservative Democrats
Democrats:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: X
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: The Democrats have not touched on issues relevant to this typology in their first week.

Republicans:
SE: +
HL: +
NE: +
GL: +
WC: +
Comment: The Republicans gain a few pluses for being fiscally disciplined, and touting it to the right demographic. The conservative Democrats are beginning to wonder whether the Republicans might not be better at cracking down on welfare abusers...

Disadvantaged Democrats
Democrats:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: X
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: Democrats have not addressed issues relevant to this typology, which include assistance to the poor, capping corporate profits and combating unemployment.

Republicans:
SE: -
HL: -
NE: -
GL: -
WC: -
Comment: However, the Republicans eat a few negatives for slashing government spending - which, again, many from this typology will rely on for their day-to-day needs. The Republicans have already begun to scare this group by claiming to want to balance the budget over the longer term, which is equated with even tougher spending cuts.

[Rick Warder]

BLITZER: "Welcome to day two of the House elections. Both Republicans and Democrats continue to aggressively push for more votes. Rick McLaughlin appeared in Nogales, NM, the site of a recent shoot out between Minutemen and illegal immigrants, to speak on border security. 'Homeland security begins at the border,' Mr. McLaughlin said, a message which will resonate with many West Coast residents who are tired of lax enforcement of existing immigration laws.

"Meanwhile, playing further on the 'security' theme, the Republican Party has prepared another nationwide ad, this one showing various nuclear sites in Iran and describing the threat that country poses. Following the recent bombing runs on Iranian strategic assets, it is a time advertisement, but many believe that following 2,500 casualties in Iraq, Americans are unwilling to be dragged into another costly, long-term engagement. The Democrats, for their part, have been pushing their message that the Republican Administration is going to waste tax money and soldiers' lives in more foreign wars.

"House Minority Leader Jack Jenkins (D) appeared at Fort Benning, Georgia, to address these concerns. Speaking to soldiers, he scolded the Administration for abandoning allies and not paying sufficient attention to mulitlateral diplomacy and the United Nations.

"In the Heartland, Rep. Ken Green launched into attack mode, broadcasting an advertisement featuring Iranian terrorists, and finishing up with a nuclear explosion superimposed on the words 'Vote Republican'. Whether the subliminal message being conveyed is a good one remains to be seen; however, the attack ad has apparently spiked interest in the Iranian situation, while simultaneously turning off a lot of voters, especially the ones on the left of the political spectrum. Many others have become galvanized against Ken Green, who is gaining a reputation for being a right wing Christian extremist. At the Children's Hospital in Kansas City, Rep. Ken Green held a speech advocating war against Iran, saying that 'American soldiers are willing to pay the ultimate price in order to protect our freedom', alluding to the threat of nuclear terrorism later on in the speech.

"Rep. Orenda Naaz Jackson-Cortez, a newcomer to the House, hosted a rally in Poughkeepsie, NY, promoting education spending and arguing against useless welfare which does nothing to promote competitiveness. She drew much applause, especially from liberals. Ms. Jackson-Cortez is gaining a reputation as a leading RINO.

"Mr. William Reynolds appeared at Augusta Christian Church at Indianapolis, IA, saying that 'Democrats will still stand with ordinary churches, churches that preach the word of God, not sell Him out to try and buy a new surround sound system.' This accusation was levelled at Rep. Ken Green, who has been aggressively touring the Christian Right fundraising circuit. Mr. Jenkins launched into a screed against the Administration's cut to low income family aid and other welfare programs, drawing applause from the poor, generally disadvantaged and urban audience.

"In the Great Lakes, the Democrats, also introduced the newest ad, 'Take Back America', which accuses the Republicans of using wars to feed profit to Halliburton. The Democrats also contrast former Presidents Bush and Clinton, showing an unflattering picture of Bush juxtaposed with a feel-good picture of Bill Clinton. This ad should draw the liberal-heavy Great Lakes region further into the Democrat camp. The ad also attacked welfare cuts and advocated fiscal responsibility - a mixed message, which may or may not play well with voters.

"Now into day two of campaigning, two trends are emerging: the Democrats are strengthening amongst their traditional constituencies, and drawing in pro-welfare Republicans, and the Republicans are focusing almost entirely on fiscal responsibility and security."

DAY TWO POLLING DATA

Enterprisers
Democrats:
SE: -
HL: -
NE: -
GL: ---
WC: -
Comment: The Democrats eat big minuses in the Great Lakes for their pro-welfare advertising campaign, also because of Mr. Jack Jenkins' campaign event criticising cuts to the welfare budget.

Republicans:
SE: ++
HL: ++++++
NE: ++
GL: ++
WC: +
Comment: In the Heartland, the Republicans gone for an all-out border security offensive, adding many pluses. Attack ads, campaign events and other events have all drawn enterpriser support to the Republicans. In the West Coast, Mr. McLaughlin's anti-immigration campaign event turned off some enterprisers, which limited gains in that region.

Social Conservatives
Democrats:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: X
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: Democrats have not dealt with issues relevant to this typology, so far.

Republicans:
SE: +
HL: +
NE: ++
GL: +
WC: ++
Comment: The Republican attack on immigration in the West Coast has bolstered Social Conservative support for Rep. McLaughlin. In New England, Ms. Jackson-Cortez's attacks on welfare have gained her points as well.

Pro Gov Conservatives
Democrats:
SE: --
HL: -
NE: -
GL: -
WC: -
Comment: In the southeast, pro government conservatives are turned off by Democratic multilateralism.

Republicans:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: -
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: Mrs. Jackson-Cortez attacks welfare, losing support from Social Conservatives in the Northeast.

Upbeats
Democrats:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: X
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: No change. Upbeats have not reacted to the Democrat message so far.

Republicans:
SE: -
HL: -
NE: -
GL: -
WC: --
Comment: The Republican anti-immigrant rhetoric has turned off some of the upbeats in the West Coast. In the rest of the country, no changes are reported.

Disaffecteds
Democrats:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: X
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: No changes, no relevant issues to this typology have been discussed by Democrats.

Republicans:
SE: +
HL: +
NE: X
GL: +
WC: +
Comment: Republicans lose ground in the Northeast amongst disaffecteds as a result of attacks on welfare spending and Mrs Jackson-Cortez's comments that hard work is necessary for success, something this group definitely does not believe to be the case.

Liberals
Democrats:
SE: +++
HL: ++
NE: ++
GL: +++
WC: ++
Comment: Democrats gain ground in the Great Lakes for their advocacy of fiscal responsibility and being against a unilateral foreign policy in the Southeast. These gains were partially cancelled out by Mr. Jack Jenkins wooing Christians at Indianapolis.

Republicans:
SE: --
HL: ----
NE: ---
GL: --
WC: ---
Comment: The Republicans eat tons of minuses for advocating an assertive foreign policy, being against immigration and wanting to cut welfare. If the Republican strategists are smart, at this point, the liberals should be written off as a valid typology which may support the GOP. The worst case scenario is that the GOP angers liberals so much that they turn out en masse to vote.

Conservative Democrats
Democrats:
SE: ++
HL: X
NE: X
GL: ++
WC: X
Comment: Democrats gain two pluses in the Great Lakes for Mr. Jenkins' wooing of moderate Christians. Mr. Jenkins is intent on securing these voters for the Democrats.

Republicans:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: +
GL: X
WC: X
Comment: The Republicans gain a plus for Mrs. Jackson-Cortez's anti-welfare speech in the Northeast, but get minuses all over for advocating an aggressive foreign policy.

Disadvantaged Democrats
Democrats:
SE: X
HL: X
NE: X
GL: +++++
WC: X
Comment: The Great Lakes are suddenly very competitive in this typology, as Democrats aggressively criticize GOP welfare cuts through new ads and a personal appearance by Rep. Jack Jenkins.

Republicans:
SE: -
HL: -
NE: --
GL: -
WC: -
Comment: The Republicans eat a minus in the Northeast for advocating welfare cuts.